Monday, November 08, 2010

The Hobo Philosopher

A Noble Prediction for 2012

The extremely mild, moderate course that has been pointed to as the direction of the future by the Democrats and Obama seems to have been rejected by American voters as radical and leftist. The voters “common sense” has encouraged them into the belief that the National economy should be managed as they manage their household economy - times ahead are tough and therefore spending should be curtailed and cuts are even better. In consequence, they have reestablished the party with the worst spending record in all of American history - the Republicans - to do the job.

Ronald Reagan spent more of the taxpayer’s money than all previous American presidents combined. He tripled the National Debt in eight short years.

George Herbert Walker Bush, challenging Reagan’s supply side economics (give money to the rich and watch them help the poor and middle class) as Voodoo economics then doubled his predecessor’s negative achievement. He doubled the National Debt that Reagan handed him in just four short years.

George W. Bush then proceeded to outspend both his Uncle Ronny and his dad.

So now they are back to cure our spending “problems” and just when the majority of economists agree that government spending is, for the first time in thirty years, the advisable course.

Republicans have promised to cut taxes to the rich and the middle class, balance the budget - with no cuts in military and pentagon spending - and create jobs.

Creating jobs requires spending (investment/expansion) on somebody’s part. We are in a “deflationary” period. That is in real speak a depression/recession.

Because of the economic outlook the private sector is not spending, banks are not loaning, and businesses are laying off workers. Despite talk to the contrary, in such times, BOTH parties believe in government spending.

Republicans, sighting World War II as their prime example, claim to this day, that wartime government spending is what saved the American economy from the “Great Depression” of the 1920-30’s. Both Republicans and Democrats go on to claim government spending on the Marshall Plan followed by government wartime-like spending during the Cold War as the prime reason for America’s post war recovery and prosperity.

What Republicans don’t believe in is social or domestic government spending. Domestic spending in America and on the American people is claimed to be “Socialism” by Republicans. Military government spending is not considered “Socialism” but “Capitalism” by Republicans.

Democrats unlike Republicans believe that all government spending, social or military, is “Capitalistic” so long as it is filtered through private sector outlets, managers or expeditors. Republicans believe that this is only true of government military spending.

Accepting these dogmatic stances, we should be able to predict America’s future.

Since the Republicans are not in full control of the government at this moment, their objectives will be limited. They will have to be content in halting government domestic spending.

In the next two years they will attempt to stifle government spending, return taxpayers dollars to the Republican base, (the wealthy, super-wealthy, and national and international corporate interests) and reduce the expanding “Democrat” government in any way possible.

This is the modern day rebirth of the failed depression creating policies of Herbert Hoover. Enacting these policies, to the delight of American voters, should bring predictable results. A double dip recession should be on the horizon if Democrats and the president are not able to override these Republican intentions.

The president’s past behavior indicates a submissive positioning. The Democrats with the help of redneck Republican Dixiecrats watered down and undermined any serious liberal accomplishments thus far. So now with the cat out of the bag the “pussyfooting” should be over and the Democrats can claim that their hands are tied while the Republicans slash and burn and move us to the right and more militarism. The Democrats will continue to wallow in the delusion that the American people will eventually “see the light” and realize that Republicanism is truly anti-Americanism. It doesn’t seem to be happening. In fact, the reverse has been the norm.

Presuming that the Democrats and the president will cooperate with the Republican demands for political reasons we can then presume that the scene will be set in 2012 for a Republican take over of the entire government.

The economy and jobs will remain the problem in 2012 and the depression will be worse. The Republicans will see to it and the American people will blame the Democrats. I don’t see why the American people will not blame the Democrats. They have blamed the Democrats for these recent Republican obstructions and heaped past Republican failures onto present Democrats to boot. So why should we assume that the attitude of the American people will be any different in 2012?

With the Republicans in command in 2012 there is only one option for prosperity on the home front.

Since Republicans do not believe in government domestic spending as “Capitalistic” and since government spending is the only way out of a depression (depression = lack of private sector investment and spending) the Republicans will be required to create a bigger and more inclusive war.
The only other Republican alternative to war is to wait out the depression. I doubt that the American people in all their conformity will tolerate that alternative. There is also the fact that there is no economic evidence that a depression will bottom out and that businesses will return to spending and investment on and of their own accord. There is no evidence of any such thing ever happening. As long as jobs continue to decrease, consumption will decrease. Consumption drives investment. Nobody buying … no reason to increase production.
The American people "should" demand some type of action. Any domestic investment being considered “Socialism,” welfare-ism, wasteful, communistic and debt creating in nature, some type of war will be mandatory - war being interpreted as legitimate Capitalistic government spending by Republicans.
Bush had his sights on Iran when he left office. Already other Republicans are picking up the chant.
North Korea is a good possibility too. We could hit them both. China would be an insane selection but for Republicans and the threatened western capitalistic world, I wouldn’t take it off the table. It could be a big one with lots of money and jobs created.
Like it or not for Republicans war is synonymous with prosperity and economic growth. Peace is stagnant and deflationary. It can not be encouraged monetarily or economically. And if government domestic spending, investment and incentive are off the table in times of peace and defined as Socialistic, then their reasoning is logical.
As far as the American people go it does seem plain that they would rather sacrifice the arms, legs and lives of their children - or maybe their neighbor’s children - than put their dollars in jeopardy investing in health care and improvements at home for other Americans. Better to pave a road to war than an interstate in Mississippi or Ohio.
For corroboration of this analysis and prediction I suggest a study of the Roman Empire followed by economic analysis of the rise and fall of Nazi Germany’s military expansion - I suppose a study of the expansion of any military empire would be adequate.
I do hope these predictions are proven wrong in the future but my skepticism reigns at this moment. Not so much because of the actions of the American government but because of the actions of the American people - which is even more disappointing.

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